Risk v Reward - The Cases of Jaxson Dart and Shemar Stewart

Jaxson Dart / QB / Ole Miss

The NFL Draft is the primary means by which the 32 NFL franchises acquire new talent to be added to the deep well of elite athletes that stock their depth charts. But attrition is a constant factor that must be considered – the average NFL career lasts less than four seasons and new players are needed each off season to replenish the ranks. NFL teams place a higher priority on certain positions relative to others. NFL teams prefer to use high round picks (rounds 1-3) on QBs, WRs, OTs, EDGEs, IDL, and CBs and use later round picks on RBs, TEs, IOL, LB, S, and Specialists. The thought process is to draft players high who touch the ball frequently – or are tasked with either protecting or stopping those ball athletes – and then back fill the rest of the roster with later round picks and UDFAs. Obviously, teams will draft to fill holes in the starting lineup on the non-premium positions but for the most part, this approach is fairly consistent across the league. This causes NFL teams to push up the draft value of prospects at these premium positions, often beyond the value they had actually displayed on the field in college on Saturday afternoons. And this is the issue with two of the most divisive prospects in this year’s draft – Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart and Texas A&M EDGE Shemar Stewart. Both prospects pass the eye test but deeper analysis of their production over the course of their college careers prompts more questions than answers.

Jaxson Dart / QB / Ole Miss

6’2 & ¼” / 223 / 9 & 5/8” Hands

Let’s start off with some positive news regarding Dart, the former four-star recruit who started as a freshman at USC and has two years of starting experience in the SEC at Ole Miss. And this cannot be overstated – the NFL has had too many immensely talented QBs with too little college experience that have washed out of the league. That’s not an issue with Dart who has faced the best college defenses over the last two seasons in Oxford and leaves as the school’s all-time leading passer. Dart possesses a prototypical NFL body and athleticism reminiscent of a young Aaron Rodgers. He has a plus arm that can make every throw in the NFL route tree with the desired zip and velocity and his release speed is very good. Dart is a very accurate passer who throws consistently with outstanding timing and touch – especially from a clean pocket. And that’s the rub when it comes to Dart, he is much better when he operates without defensive players on top of him or is under situational pressure. Not surprising or different from other QBs who all play better from a clean pocket. But Dart’s performance really falls off a cliff when faced with heavy pressure in his face. Likewise, the quality of Dart’s play really falls off against better competition or in crunch time. Take for instance, his performance in the waning minutes of the Ole Miss-Florida game in late November. Ole Miss, with a win over the Gators in the Swamp, would likely earn a bid to the first 12-team college football playoff field. Unfortunately, Dart imploded with two INTs, with his last one being thrown into TRIPLE coverage while under heavy duress from the Gators’ pass rush, and the Rebels playoff hopes were dashed. Dart’s pro comp is somewhat unflattering – former Broncos and Bears QB Jay Cutler. Cutler always teased NFL fans with a great combination of skills – a strong arm, a very accurate passer, and a very good athlete with running ability outside the pocket. But Cutler seldom delivered in the clutch and never fulfilled his promise as a first-round draft pick out of Vanderbilt. Dart’s stock has been steadily rising throughout the draft process and he may jump Shedeur Sanders and become the second QB selected next week. But the pro personnel department that selects Dart in the first-round next week in Green Bay – in a draft with a seemingly weak QB class of top signal callers such as this one, a desperate team in need of a QB is likely to reach and draft Dart (looking at you Cleveland, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh!) – may not survive the rookie’s first contract.

Shemar Stewart / EDGE / Texas A&M

6’5” / 267 / 34 & 1/8” Arms / 84 & ¾” Wingspan

Stewart is the classic case of a prospect possessing an incredibly high ceiling that reaches up to the Heavens but a floor that collapses down to the Earth’s molten core. Unlike Dart, where concerns center around his performance under duress or in the clutch, but otherwise his game film shows a talented player who produces on Saturdays with a skill set that projects to the NFL level, Stewart has very little production to show for three years of playing college football. Stewart recorded 42 total tackles, 7.5 TFLs, and three sacks, over the LAST TWO SEASONS COMBINED! A former 5-star recruit, Stewart is the classic “workout warrior” who put on a show at the NFL Scouting Combine, posting a fantastic 40 time of 4.59 seconds with a blazing 10-yard split of 1.58 seconds, indicative of elite burst and acceleration, while vertical jumping an astounding 40” and broad jumping an absurd 10’11” at 267 pounds! Equally impressive is his strength – he can deadlift 613 pounds and has absurd natural strength and power. His workout numbers indicate that he is a super athlete, and he may very well be. But the lack of production is difficult to fathom consider the raw ability. Stewart only recorded 1.5 sacks last season with the sack being recorded against Bowling Green and only recording .5 sack in SEC play. Stewart and Texas A&M had the opportunity to face SNS’ Top 3 OTs last season – Kelvin Banks (Texas), Will Campbell (LSU), and Armand Membou (Missouri) – and although Stewart was not lined up exclusively across from any of the three, his lack of production in those games is indicative of issues with his overall game. Stewart only recorded 10 total tackles, one TFL, and zero sacks combined in those three games. Paltry numbers for any prospective NFL draft pick but dismal and unacceptable numbers for a first-round selection. EDGE is an impact position in the NFL and production at the college level typically indicates a similar level of performance in the NFL. But so does a lack of production. But the NFL loves their traits and many teams are enamored with height, weight, length, foot speed, and power. And Stewart has all of those raw skills in abundance. But whichever team uses a first-round pick on Stewart is betting on their coaches’ skill in player development, an aspect that is not a strength in the NFL. If a team with stable front office and coaching staff, like Baltimore or Philadelphia drafts Stewart, he has a good chance to be developed into an effective NFL player. But if a team with less stability in the front office or coaching staff picks him in the first-round, Stewart is likely to be a bust. And a bust that may take a coaching staff or front office out the door with him. Buyer beware.

Shemar Stewart / EDGE / Texas A&M

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